France's energy regulator has set out how the country is to buy firm capacity for winter 2030-31. On 9 October the Commission de régulation de l'énergie (CRE) published its proposals to the energy minister for the first long-term auction of the new capacity mechanism: a target volume of 82 GW, of which 3 GW can be awarded multi-year contracts, and price caps kept at today's levels. The deliberation itself, number 2026-199, is dated 8 October, according to L'Echo du Solaire.
Two Auctions Instead Of One
The reformed mechanism pays operators of generation, storage and demand response to commit capacity for critical periods such as peak demand. It runs on two auctions: a long-term one about four years before the delivery period and a short-term one about a year ahead. The first short-term auction was held on 6 July 2026 for the coming winter.
The 82 GW covers all the capacity to be procured, not only new plant. The transmission operator RTE, whose report the parameters are based on, sees a moderate security-of-supply risk and a need for between 0 and 2.5 GW of new capacity depending on the scenario. The multi-year contracts are reserved for new capacity: within the 3 GW, storage is capped at 0.9 GW of certified capacity and at least 2.1 GW goes to other technologies, as a decree of 31 December 2025 provides, L'Echo du Solaire reports. The caps stay at 72 €/kW overall and 15 €/kW for existing capacity. CRE says it chose cautious economic parameters to limit the cost to consumers.
There is an awkward transition. Bidders have to commit for 2030-31 before their contributions for the three winters from 2027-28 to 2029-30 are secured, and CRE expects the approach to change in later rounds.
How Much A Battery Counts
The point that has drawn the most comment is storage. CRE set the sector coefficient for batteries at 0.45, departing from RTE's scenarios: it judged RTE's 3 GW case too pessimistic and the 8 GW and 13 GW cases optimistic, built its own assumption of 5.5 GW installed in 2030 and raised the result by 10 % for uncertainty. Multiplied by the duration factor, a four-hour battery is certified at about 35 % of its power and a two-hour battery at about 21 %; solar gets 5 %. France had about 2 GW of batteries in June 2026. L'Echo du Solaire notes that only Poland, and Ireland for short durations, credit storage lower in Europe.
Firm Plant On A Cold Evening
For engine and gas turbine plants, the reserved 2.1 GW of non-storage multi-year contracts is the part to read twice. A capacity contract pays for being there when the system is short, and in France that usually means a cold, still winter evening. Plants that bid have to start reliably after weeks of standing, reach load fast and keep running for as long as the stress lasts; four-hour batteries now undercut new gas peakers on cost in Wood Mackenzie's latest study, but CRE's coefficients decide how much of a battery's power counts as firm. Operators of CHP plants and peaking units now have a price cap and a volume; the minister's decision and the auction date are still to come.
Sources: Commission de régulation de l'énergie, L'Echo du Solaire, ESS News
