The 6.8 GW of capacity that PJM Interconnection wants to buy because of data center growth may turn out to be a good deal smaller. In a note dated 28 October, analysts at Jefferies wrote that three utilities have cut their near-term large-load forecasts by a combined 6.5 GW, and that the reliability backstop procurement could come down to roughly 630 MW once PJM recalculates its need. Utility Dive reported the estimate on 3 November, together with the view of the consultancy ICF on PJM's revised filing.
Three Utilities Take Load Out
The three are PPL Electric, FirstEnergy and AES Ohio, and their changes went to PJM's Load Analysis Subcommittee; the article does not split the 6.5 GW between them. PJM spokesman Jeffrey Shields told Utility Dive that the grid operator expects to publish its 2027 long-term load forecast in January, once the subcommittee has vetted the adjustments, and that a lower final large-load forecast for 2028/29 could reduce the amount procured. Updated accreditation for the resources that cleared the July auction for 2028/29, and bilateral contracts between data center developers and power suppliers, could also take it down.
Not everyone reads the numbers that way. A Charles River Associates analysis, commissioned by PJM as an independent data center forecast and discussed at the subcommittee on 2 November, found that PJM could be about 11.5 GW short by 2030.
Who Carries The Collateral
PJM filed the revised procurement with FERC on 29 October, after the commission had rejected key parts of the first version in September, as described in our earlier report. The new version assigns costs using more recent large-load growth data, changes the collateral method, and lets the obligation and its collateral follow a large customer that switches supplier.
Maria Scheller, vice president of energy and planning at ICF, told Utility Dive that this sharply reduces the risk for default service providers and providers of last resort, though such a supplier could still have to carry substantial collateral for a while if a large load starts on default service. Whether the utility stays a pure intermediary depends on state rules for timely cost recovery and customer security. She expects some state regulators to need new rules for allocating the costs, for supplier changes and for large loads that shrink, default or leave. In her view the risk for existing customers falls but does not disappear. The calendar stays as filed: bids close on 28 March, final targets are set on 28 April and results come out on 10 May. FERC has not ruled yet.
A Forecast Is Not A Contract
For anyone planning generation around a data center in PJM, the signal is that utilities are now taking load out of what they report rather than adding it. A developer who counts on the pool may find less capacity bought on its behalf than the original figure suggested. One who brings its own engines or turbines, or signs a bilateral deal, reduces the procurement further still. The gap between 630 MW for 2028/29 and a shortfall of 11.5 GW by 2030 shows how far apart the estimates are; the January forecast will settle at least the first of them. Plant types for both cases are on our power plants page.
Sources: Utility Dive
